Approximately 2 GW over five to seven years
Microsoft campus
Selected intelligence · Fuel-Backed Power Readiness
Project Kilby
Can a proposed West Texas gas-generation strategy support a hyperscale compute campus on the announced timeline?
Executive conclusion
Credible concept. Unproven delivery chain.
Project Kilby’s fuel-backed power strategy can work physically, but public evidence does not yet demonstrate that sufficient processed gas can reach the plant through firm commercial rights, at the required pressure, and within the 2028 commissioning window.
- The conclusion does not reject Kilby.
- It does not validate the full 2 GW headline for 2028.
- It supports further diligence around a bounded first phase.
Project scale
The public figures describe different scopes and dates.
Campus capacity, commercial generation, and the permit envelope should not be treated as equivalent or simultaneous.
Approximately 2.67 GW by phases
Kilby generation
Approximately 2.869 GW across 46 turbines
Public permit envelope
2028
First power target
Later in the decade
Full commercial operations
What the announced load implies
Fuel volume bounds the first operable block.
372.8 MMcf/d
2 GW at an 8.0 MMBtu/MWh heat rate
410.1 MMcf/d
2 GW with 10% contractual and hourly headroom
~1.46 GW
supported by a 300 MMcf/d firm block
~2.19 GW
supported by a 450 MMcf/d firm block
These are analytical volumetric tests. They do not prove path availability, pressure, firm priority, lateral readiness, or commercial access.
Controlling dependency
Permian gas abundance is not the same as Kilby deliverability.
The project must convert a regional fuel thesis into one evidenced, project-specific operating chain.
01
Microsoft load
02
generation phase
03
gas requirement
04
selected carrier and points
05
hydraulic and pressure confirmation
06
firm transportation
07
lateral, metering, and compression
08
gas-in
09
integrated commissioning
Confirmed versus unconfirmed
The public record is strong on the project concept and weak on the executable fuel path.
Confirmed
- Named Microsoft load
- 20-year power agreement
- Phased natural-gas generation strategy
- Detailed public turbine permit envelope
- Advanced air-permit review
- Critical equipment reported as secured
- EPC capacity reported as reserved
- 2028 first-power target
Not publicly confirmed
- Selected pipeline
- Receipt and delivery points
- Firm transportation rights
- Maximum daily quantity
- Minimum delivery pressure
- Lateral route and ownership
- Compression and metering design
- Balancing or storage arrangement
- Unit-level delivery schedule
- Microsoft’s initial MW acceptance block
Stress-test findings
Economics move. Physical readiness turns on rights, pressure, and timing.
Stress 01
Gas at $3, $6, or $10/MMBtu changes economics but does not control physical readiness.
Stress 02
No firm transportation changes the result to Restructure.
Stress 03
A 12-month lateral delay likely breaks the original 2028 sequence.
Stress 04
Extending the temporary Titan 130 fleet carries approximately $56 million-$220 million of incremental annual fuel cost versus combined cycle, depending on the scenario.
Stress 05
A 20% pressure-related derate could remove approximately 400 MW from a 2 GW block.
Decision conditions
Advance a phase, not a headline.
Advance · first phase only
Possible after evidence confirms:
- 01Named pipeline and delivery path
- 02Sufficient firm volume
- 03Usable pressure
- 04Executable lateral and pressure facilities
- 05Final air authorization
- 06Unit-level equipment schedule
- 07Aligned Microsoft acceptance block
Restructure
Required when:
- 01Firm gas supports a smaller load
- 02Pressure requires additional facilities
- 03The lateral misses the commissioning window
- 04Temporary generation must remain longer
- 05Microsoft’s load arrives ahead of firm power
Methodology
One sequence from operating requirement to deployment decision.
Project demand
physical delivery path
available capacity and existing commitments
commercial access
regulatory and execution dependencies
timing and stress conditions
deployment decision
Scope boundary
This is an independent public-evidence assessment. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by Microsoft, Chevron, Joulent, National Grid, or the project’s counterparties. It does not provide engineering certification, legal advice, a fuel commitment, or investment advice. Project-specific commercial and technical confirmation is still required.
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